XRP Price Prediction: Will It Break the $2 Barrier?

#XRP

• Technical Hurdle at Moving Average: The price must convincingly break above the 20-day MA at $2.0852, which is acting as a major resistance level, to open the path toward $2.
• Supportive Fundamentals vs. Immediate Overhead: Positive news like Ripple's expansion and declining reserves builds a solid foundation, but the market must first overcome significant technical selling pressure near current levels.
• Critical Support Zone: The lower Bollinger Band near $1.9124 is providing immediate support. A hold here is necessary to prevent a deeper pullback and maintain the chance for an upward move.

XRP Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: XRP Approaches Critical Support

XRP is currently trading at $1.8962, below its 20-day moving average of $2.0852, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The MACD shows a positive histogram of 0.0166, with the MACD line (0.0555) above the signal line (0.0389), suggesting potential for a bullish crossover. However, the price is trading near the lower Bollinger Band ($1.9124), which often acts as dynamic support. 'The convergence near the lower band, coupled with a positive MACD divergence, could signal a near-term consolidation or reversal attempt,' says BTCC financial analyst William. A sustained break above the middle band ($2.0852) WOULD be needed to confirm a stronger bullish shift.

Market Sentiment: Mixed Fundamentals Amid Strategic Moves

Market sentiment for XRP is cautiously optimistic, tempered by technical resistance. News of declining exchange reserves typically suggests reduced selling pressure, while Ripple's $300 million venture fund expansion into South Korea is a clear long-term growth catalyst. The launch of $100M in wrapped XRP by Hex Trust highlights growing institutional interest but brings bridge security concerns to the forefront. 'The fundamental developments are constructive, particularly Ripple's strategic expansion, but the price must conquer the technical hurdle NEAR $2.05-$2.08 for sentiment to turn decisively positive,' notes BTCC financial analyst William. The struggle at the $2 support level reflects this tug-of-war between positive news flow and immediate technical overhead.

Factors Influencing XRP’s Price

XRP Exchange Reserves Dwindle Amid Market Volatility

XRP's presence on centralized exchanges has contracted sharply, with only 4 billion tokens remaining readily available for trading - just 8% of its circulating supply. This exodus from trading platforms suggests investors are moving holdings into long-term storage despite the altcoin's bearish price action.

The accelerating withdrawal rate raises prospects of a supply shock, particularly if demand resurges. Market observers note this pattern often precedes price rallies, as reduced exchange liquidity amplifies buying pressure.

Ripple Bull Winkle's data reveals the sustained outflow continues even as XRP struggles to maintain momentum. The trend mirrors behavior seen before previous bull runs, where strategic accumulation preceded breakouts.

XRP Tests $2 Support Amid Diverging ETF Flows

Ripple's XRP faces mounting pressure as it breaches the $2 threshold, marking a 12.5% monthly decline. The token now trades at levels last seen before its January rally to seven-year highs above $3.

ETF flows tell a contrasting story. XRP-focused products have recorded 30 consecutive days of inflows totaling $990 million, pushing total assets to $1.18 billion. This institutional interest diverges sharply from struggling Bitcoin and ethereum ETFs, which face persistent outflows.

Market technicians note the $2 level represents critical support. A sustained hold above this threshold could signal accumulation, while failure may trigger stop-loss cascades. The token's 2025 performance remains its strongest since 2020, suggesting underlying bullish conviction.

Hex Trust’s $100M Wrapped XRP Launch Sparks Bridge Security Debate

Hex Trust’s introduction of Wrapped XRP (wXRP) across Ethereum, Solana, and other EVM chains marks a high-risk, high-reward play for institutional liquidity. The $100 million seeding targets RLUSD stablecoin pairs—a strategic move that leaves XRP’s price unmoved at press time.

Custodial wrapping reintroduces centralized vulnerabilities to XRP’s decentralized ledger. LayerZero’s OFT standard offers technical mitigation, but the $100 million liquidity pool remains a honeypot for exploiters. Bridge hacks accounted for over half of 2025’s crypto losses to date.

The launch pits Hex Trust against Coinbase’s cbXRP and Axelar’s eXRP in a battle for cross-chain dominance. Market fragmentation risks outweigh immediate utility gains as traders weigh smart contract exposure against native XRP’s security.

Ripple Expands to South Korea With $300 Million Venture Fund: XRP To Gain?

Ripple Labs is making a strategic MOVE into South Korea, launching a $300 million venture fund in collaboration with Seoul-based firms VivoPower and Lean Ventures. Both partners bring substantial institutional credibility, with Lean Ventures managing government-linked entities. While some investors hope this will boost XRP's price, the fund appears more focused on Ripple's IPO equity than its native token.

Institutional investors typically favor predictable private equity-style investments over volatile digital assets. The fund's appeal lies primarily in Ripple's fintech expertise rather than XRP's speculative potential. Regulatory scrutiny for Ripple's impending IPO won't extend to XRP, further separating the two investment propositions.

Will XRP Price Hit 2?

Based on the current technical setup and fundamental news flow, XRP faces a clear challenge in reaching and sustaining a price above $2 in the immediate term.

The technical picture shows the price ($1.8962) is below the key 20-day Moving Average resistance at $2.0852. While the MACD hints at building positive momentum, the price is testing the lower Bollinger Band support. A move to $2 would require breaking through several technical layers, as summarized below:

Fundamentally, the news is supportive. Declining exchange reserves, Ripple's strategic expansion, and new wrapped token products create a favorable long-term backdrop. 'The ingredients for a rally are there,' says BTCC financial analyst William. 'However, the market needs to absorb the supply near the $2.05-$2.09 area. A daily close above the 20-day MA would significantly increase the odds of a successful test of $2.'

In conclusion, a move to $2 is possible, but it is not the most probable immediate outcome. The path of least resistance in the short term appears to be sideways consolidation between $1.91 and $2.08, building energy for a potential breakout later.